Final greetings for 2023,

Yesterday was an all over the place wind, from broach gusts to very calm and wind from 360o……….but 11 intrepid sailors braved the elements and intense heat, to battle in behavioural excellence to the end, in the hope of winning a cup of tea and biscuits at the end. Among the biscuits selection were a scrumptious chocolate variety which had degenerated to molten mass in the high temperatures, tsk tsk. Roy Bickerstaffe was race officer assisted by Tom Wilda and they set a course with gates either end and downwind wing marks, a course I thought was very good, plus the start was mark foy, which made the start line much easier. Congratulations to the podium placers, Tom. Cliff and Glen, and if you look at the points for the first 4 places you will see how close it was with 2 ties having to be broken.

Now I am going to reprint from my priceless store of yachting articles “Speed & Smarts” by Dave Dellenbaugh, an article which explains what actually happens when us Saturday sailors wonder how Polly (J 333) always gets himself into good positions.

Probability or luck. At the end of a race or series, it’s not uncommon to hear someone say they did poorly because of bad luck. Does ‘luck’ really play a big part in sailboat racing? According to the dictionary, luck is defined as “chance, or fortune”. If luck happened randomly, everyone would get an equal dose of both good and bad luck, at least in the long run. But that’s not usually the way it works.

In sailing, the top sailors often appear to be lucky while the less experienced sailors are often unlucky. The reason for this, in my opinion, is that good sailors create their own luck by playing the odds. That is, they usually put themselves in high-percentage situations and stay away from low-percentage gambles. By doing so, they get favourable wind shifts more often than not. It may look like they are lucky, but their gains usually come from a conservative, play-the-odds philosophy of racing.

On the other hand, less-experienced sailors do not consistently play the best odds, and they sometimes take chances top sailors would never take. Because of this, wind shifts often don’t go their way. It may look like they are victims of bad luck, but in reality the probabilities are just catching up with them. A lot of what appears top be good or bad luck is simply a reflection of each boats sailing strategy. In many ways the ‘luck’ you get is what you deserve based on your preparation and strategizing.

However, there are other times when boats experience random occurrences that are unpredictable or, at least, unlikely. For example, if everyone agreed there was a 90% chance that the wind would shift to the right but the wind actually shifted to the left, then the boats on the left side had good luck and the boats on the right had bad luck.

One thing about sailing is that you are never sure what will happen with the wind. All you can do is play the odds and you should be right (or lucky) most of the time. But if you pursue low-probability options, then you really will need luck, and that is never something you can (or want to) count on.